Land across Iran is subsiding at an alarming rate, mainly driven by excessive groundwater extraction for farming, causing damage to aquifers that can’t be repaired in some regions, even if they are replenished.

Many parts of Iran are experiencing this problem, and studies suggest it is among the world’s most affected countries, along with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, and the Philippines.

In provinces like Tehran, Kerman, and Isfahan, where a lot of industrial and agricultural activity takes place, scientists reckon land is subsiding at rates of more than 30cm a year, wrecking pipelines, drainage systems and other vital infrastructure.

This vertical sinking of the land surface happens slowly—sometimes just a few centimeters a year—but over time, it adds up and can suddenly cause the ground to collapse, leaving behind large cracks and sinkholes. In Iran, such incidents have been reported at airports, on highways, and at railway stations, where thousands of people pass through daily.

Last month, in the central city of Kashan, images circulating on social media showed entire swallowed vehicles, raising concerns over the safety of commuters and residents.

Meanwhile, experts like journalist Nik Kowsar say that despite the severity of the problem, the Islamic Republic has failed to implement a comprehensive, enforceable framework to address land subsidence—and has largely remained silent on the issue.

Amir Aghakuchak, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and earth system sciences at the University of California, Irvine, told me in an interview that because land subsidence occurs in increments, the crisis is usually overlooked.

“It lacks the dramatic visibility of acute disasters like earthquakes and floods, allowing authorities to underplay its risks,” says Aghakuchack.

In Iran, “this invisibility is a key reason land subsidence remains on the sidelines in national disaster planning, despite its profound long-term consequences,” he adds.

A Double Threat

Iran, with a population of over 85 million, is located in one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions. It sits on fault lines—cracks in the Earth’s crust where tectonic plates meet and shift, making earthquakes more frequent across the country.

The energy released during an earthquake is measured by the Moment Magnitude Scale (Mw), which usually ranges from 2.0 to 10.0, although in theory there is no upper limit. To put it in context, Iran has experienced several quakes around 6.1 in magnitude just in the past couple of years, strong enough to cause serious damage and destruction.

Local reports warn that if a big earthquake were to strike densely populated cities like Tehran, Shiraz, or Tabriz, millions of people could be killed under the rubble of construction sites and high-rise apartments.

Experts warn the situation is even more concerning because, on top of everything, land across Iran is sinking at a worrying rate, potentially worsening the impact of earthquakes and aftershocks.

Shideh Dashti, an associate professor of civil, environmental, and architectural engineering at University of Colorado Boulder, told me in an interview that areas that experience land subsidence also experience damage to their lifelines—such as transportation systems, water, wastewater, gas pipelines, and telecommunications.

“Imagine a building that has already settled, experiencing tilt, cracks, and problematic connections to an adjacent road or connected lifelines- this building is then in a compromised state if it’s subject to the seismic waves from even a minor earthquake," Dashti says.

"It may not have the strength to sustain those loads and may be pushed to failure within its foundation system or superstructure- or even collapse,” she adds.

Aquifers In Crisis

According to research published by the American Geophysical Union, the main cause of land subsidence in Iran is the excessive extraction of groundwater, with more than 90% drawn by the agricultural sector. Climate change has worsened the situation by causing more frequent and harsher droughts.

Things are particularly bad in Rafsanjan, a major pistachio-producing city in the central part of the country, where water-heavy farming has depleted local aquifers. Experts say that excessive agricultural and urban water demands in Varamin, near the capital Tehran, where the land is sinking at rates of over 31 cm per year, have led to similar outcomes.

Farshid Vahedifard, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told me in an interview that, over the past two decades, land subsidence has intensified due to unregulated well drilling, inadequate enforcement of water governance, and the proliferation of deep wells that tap into confined aquifers.

“If current groundwater practices continue unchecked, the loss of aquifer functionality will not only reduce Iran’s long-term water security but also increase the frequency and severity of land deformation,” says Vahedifard.

The problem, Aghakuchak says, is a lack of political will within Iran to address these issues, as the country’s ideological political system—and its ongoing tensions with the international community—have held back the growth of other economic sectors like tourism and technology.

“Even in the rare occasions where groundwater extraction limits exist, they are often poorly enforced due to judicial corruption and limited monitoring capacity,” he adds.