Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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• Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith has opened the door to a 2026 secession vote.
• Smith has launched an ‘Alberta Next’ initiative to push back against federal policies seen as hostile to the province’s energy industry.
• The debate comes amid rising tensions with Ottawa and Trump’s renewed talk of a U.S.-Canada “merger”, despite Canada supplying nearly half of U.S. crude imports.

Alberta could vote next year on whether to separate from Canada if a citizen-led petition gathers the requisite number of signatures requesting such a question to be put to a referendum.

That’s what Danielle Smith, the Premier of the Alberta province, which is the heart of Canada’s oil industry, said this week, just after the Liberals led by Mark Carney won the federal election and ahead of Carney’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House.

Smith stressed that the provincial government itself would not be seeking a referendum on an Alberta secession.   

“To be clear from the outset, our government will not be putting a vote on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot; however, if there is a successful citizen-led referendum petition that is able to gather the requisite number of signatures requesting such a question to be put to a referendum, our government will respect the democratic process and include that question on the 2026 provincial referendum ballot as well,” Smith said.

The government of Alberta will create an ‘Alberta Next’ panel aimed at protecting the province from “any current or future hostile policies of the federal government,” including attempts to block Alberta’s resource development.

Following the federal election, Alberta will take steps to protect itself from overreaching federal policies and will pursue a new ‘Alberta Accord’ within Canada, require Alberta’s consent on any export restrictions of Canadian resources, and demand guaranteed port access for Alberta energy and resources, Smith said.

Related: U.S. Freeport LNG Export Plant Set to Resume Service After Outage

The premier reiterated that “I do not support Alberta separating from Canada. I personally still have hope that there is a path forward for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a United Canada.”  

“So I am going to do everything within my power to negotiate a fair deal for Alberta with the new Prime Minister,” Smith noted.

For years, Alberta has been opposing federal legislation regarding emissions and resource development. Alberta has been fighting the federal government on the plan to cap emissions from oil and gas production, which the province and the industry see essentially as a cap on output.

Analysts are skeptical about whether citizens in the province will gather enough signatures to include a vote on separation in a referendum.

“These grievances are serious,” John Soroski, a political scientist at MacEwan University in Edmonton, told Associated Press.

“I think the prospects of separation are highly unlikely.”

The issue of a possible referendum on Alberta's separation was raised hours before the newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney headed to the U.S. to meet with President Trump.

The meeting appeared friendlier than many expected, although Trump once again raised the proposal of a “wonderful marriage” of incorporating Canada into the U.S.

Carney firmly rejected the marriage proposal with a carefully worded reply, “As you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale,” and likened Canada to the Oval Office and to Britain's Buckingham Palace.

“Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign in the last several months, it's not for sale. Won't be for sale, ever.”

Before the meeting, President Trump took to his Truth Social platform to express his frustration with the U.S. trade deficit with Canada.

“We don’t need their Cars, we don’t need their Energy, we don’t need their Lumber, we don’t need ANYTHING they have, other than their friendship, which hopefully we will always maintain,” President Trump wrote on Tuesday, referring to Canada.

But the fact is that the U.S. needs Canada’s energy, especially its crude oil, which is being refined in many refineries in the Midwest and on the Gulf Coast. Canada is the single biggest crude oil supplier to the United States, accounting for about 50% of U.S. gross petroleum imports with volumes of more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd).

The U.S. trade deficit with Canada jumped to $4.9 billion in March 2025, sharply higher compared to previous months, data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Tuesday.

It was higher imports of cars, crude oil, and finished wood products – goods that Trump claims the U.S. doesn’t need from Canada – that pushed up the U.S. deficit with its neighbor to the north.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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