Jun 28, 2025 Current Resources

Following The Money: UFC 317 Betting Line Movements Tracker

UFC 317 takes place this weekend (Sat., June 28, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Top billing for this event is Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira for Islam Makhachev’s vacated Lightweight title.

And the Dagestani’s shadow looms large in “Sin City.”

Nevertheless, UFC 317’s co-main event has Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France for Pantoja’s Flyweight title. Rounding out the main card is a possible No. 1 contender eliminator match at Flyweight with Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van, as well as Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano and Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima.

UFC 317’s “Prelims” are headlined by Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues. On the undercard you’ll also find Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado and Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 317 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 317 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

UFC 317 Press Conference — Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira fight for the UFC Lightweight title at UFC 317.

Ilia Topuria (-468 -10.4%) vs. Charles Oliveira (+340 +27.3%)

Vegas are very high on Topuria and his chances to extend his winning (and possibly KO) streak over former UFC champs to three. He opened as a very healthy -295 favorite, but the public have jumped all over that and pushed those odds all the way to -468. This, in turn, has transformed Oliveira’s line from +220 to +340.

These odds are now pretty extreme given the quality of the fighters involved. This is the shortest odds Topuria has had in UFC since he fought Jai Herbert (-560) in 2022. These are set to be the longest odds on Oliveira since he fought Frankie Edgar (+470) all the way back in 2014. That’s the only other time he’s been over +300 in a fight.

Oliveira was only a +275 underdog when he met Islam Makhachev last year.

A lot of this confidence in Topuria might be due to popularity and nationalism with both Spanish and Georgian fans coming out to back their guy. Oliveira is a popular fighter himself and he’ll have Brazil behind him, but Brazil aren’t exactly starved when it comes to top level fighters to bet on at a given UFC PPV.

That potentially tribal betting public has been perfect on Topuria fights, thus far. They shortened his underdog odds from +130 to +128 when he fought Alexander Volkanovski and shortened his favorite odds from -188 to -265 when he fought Max Holloway. They also bet the right way for his wins over Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell.

The public’s record on Oliveira fights is more spotty. They were right when he lost to Arman Tsarukyan, flipping him from a -120 favorite to a +190 underdog (32 percent shift). And they were right when they lengthened his odds from +225 to +275 in the Makhachev fight and shortened them from -198 to -240 when he beat Michael Chandler for a second time. They were wrong in his win over Justin Gaethje, though, changing his odds from -205 to -130.

I think the odds on Topuria are a little too short, given everything we’ve seen Oliveira do in this sport. But, I think his rabid fanbase will be proven right again and they’ll be happy to make a few bucks, in addition to seeing their guy lift his second UFC title.

Alexandre Pantoja (-262 -6.2%) vs. Kai Kara-France (+207 +14%)

Pantoja opened at -215 for this fight and Kara-France opened at +164. The public seem a little more confident than Vegas is over the possibility that Pantoja successfully defends his Flyweight title for a fourth time.

This is a bit of a turn up for the books, when it comes to Pantoja. He was faded by the public against Kai Asakura, Steve Erceg, Brandon Royval, Brandon Moreno and Alex Perez. His line didn’t change by much in each of those fights, but that’s still quite a long pattern of disbelief for someone who has proven to be one of the better UFC Flyweight champions fight fans have ever witnessed.

Kara-France can relate to Pantoja. The public have faded him a lot recently, but by even bigger margins. He opened as a +174 underdog to flavor of the week Erceg and closed at +240. He then went out and KO’d the Aussie. Kara-France was also faded against Amir Albazi, going from -205 odds to +115. He lost that fight, on paper, but the decision to award Albazi the decision has been widely criticized. The public faded Kara-France even more back when he fought, and beat, Askar Askarov. He opened at +170 for that fight and closed all the way at +350 (kudos to all who bet on him back then).

So, this is a match-up of guys the public usually expects to get beaten. This time around, though, they actually think Pantoja will get the job done. I tend to agree, based on the strength of his wrestling. Kara-France is a live dog, though, as he’s shown throughout his career.

Brandon Royval (+103 -4.5%) vs. Joshua Van (-119 +1.8%)

There’s not a lot of movement in this line between Royval and Van. Part of that is likely because of Van coming in on relatively short notice (replacing Manel Kape). Even so, the public expect this one to be a little closer than Vegas were suggesting and are showing modest support for Royval.

Royval has been wrongly faded by the public over the last few years. He beat Tatsuro Taira in his last fight, but he closed as a +250 dog for that one after opening at +150 odds. It was a similar story in his split decision win over Brandon Moreno before that. He opened at +205 and the public pushed him up to +280. The public also faded him against Matheus Nicolau, who Royval TKO’d in the first round. He opened at +125 for that fight and closed at +170.

The last time the public supported Royval it was against Pantoja. They shortened his odds from +205 to +190 in that bout. Royval would then lose a unanimous decision to the current champ.

Van got a ton of support in his last fight. He went from a -350 favorite against Bruno Silva to a -649 favorite. He then put down an elite looking performance, stopping the Brazilian in the third. Prior to that fight, though, the public faded him in his wins over Rei Tsuruya and Cody Durden.

Despite the public getting behind Van lately and the historic “disrespect” that Royval has been shown, the lines remain very close on this one. I think that’s more than fair. We’re in for a close fight and it might be a real good one, too.

Beneil Dariush (+104 -14.2%) vs. Renato Moicano (-127 +9.9%)

Dariush’s line is probably the most interesting one on the card. He opened at +133 opposite Renato Moicano’s -167. But, as you can see, the public thinks this is a much closer fight than that. They’ve essentially made this a pick ‘em.

This is the most respect Dariush has been shown lately. The public faded him in his fights with Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. In the Tsarukyan fight he opened at -120 but then closed at +255 (+43.8 percent shift). Against Gamrot he moved from +135 to +220. They were right to do that each time.

The public was right to fade Moicano when he took on Islam Makhachev on short notice. His opening line of +440 ballooned to +750, despite the line opening just a day before the fight itself. The public were, of course, right there. They were wrong in Moicano’s last two fights, though.

Against Benoit Saint-Denis, Moicano opened at +200 and then closed at +235. He then brutalized Saint-Denis is his own backyard. He opened at +110 and closed at +225 for the Jalin Turner fight. He won that one, despite being knocked down and almost finished by Turner.

Fighters I’ve tracked, whose lines move like Dariush’s, are currently 2-10. Let’s see if Dariush can buck the trend.

Payton Talbott (+146 +8.5%) vs. Felipe Lima (-180 -4.2%)

The public are over Payton Talbott. He opened at +125, the first plus odds of his UFC career, and that has now moved up to +146. It seems like the public only remember his disappointing loss to Raoni Barcelos. He opened at -600 against Barcelos and closed at -1200. He likely busted a lot of parlays when that happened.

Prior to that big upset Talbott won as a -1400 favorite against Yanis Ghemmouri and a -154 favorite against Cameron Saaiman.

Lima was faded by the public in his short notice debut against Muhammad Naimov, going from -117 to +125. He ended up winning that fight with a come from behind submission.

UFC 317 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson v Pyfer — Jack Hermansson returns at UFC 317.

Jack Hermansson (+176 +4.3%) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-219 -3.5%)

Not a lot of movement in this line. Hermansson opened at +160 and, as you can see, that’s gone up a little. In his last fight, where he beat Joe Pyfer, he opened at +160, too, and then closed at +225 odds.

Rodrigues was backed a lot by the public in his last fight. He opened as the +110 underdog against Jared Cannonier and closed as the -225 favorite. Cannonier than ran roughshod over him and took him out in the third round.

UFC Fight Night: Amil v Gomis — Hyder Amil might snag another bonus at UFC 317.

Hyder Amil (+130 +10.9%) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (-160 -8.2%)

Vegas had this as a very close fight with +105 for Amil and -132 for Delgado. The public think Delgado is a bit better than that though. In Delgado’s debut they thought he was a lot better. He opened at -170 against Connor Matthews and that moved massively to close at -480. Delgado then dominated Matthews.

UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC - Ceremonial Weigh-in — UFC 317’s Tracy Cortez fights for the first time in almost a year.

Viviane Araujo (+200 +15.3%) vs. Tracy Cortez (-253 -10.5%)

Araujo’s line is one of the highest climbers at UFC 317. She opened at +154. This is nothing new for Araujo, though. She’s seen her underdog lines grow against Karine Silva, Natalia Silva, Jennifer Maia, Amanda Ribas and Alexa Grasso. She beat Karine Silva and Maia.

UFC 312: Ceremonial Weigh-In — Slava Claus needs a win at UFC 317.

Terrance McKinney (-171 +6.1%) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+138 -9.2%)

McKinney opened at -205 odds for this fight. The public have backed him in his last three fights. He is 2-1 in those bouts, the one being the lightning fast head kick loss he took to Esteban Ribovics.

The public were correct to fade Borshchev in his last fight, a decision loss to Tom Nolan.

UFC 317 Early ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

UFC 309: Onama v Romero — Jhonata Diniz draws a newcomer at UFC 317.

Jhonata Diniz (-328 -7.3%) vs. Alvin Hines (+250 +17.1%)

Hines is being faded, hard, by the public. That’s taken his opening line from +190 to +250. A lot of this is due to name recognition, or lack thereof. Hines is coming straight into UFC off LFA. I think people might be sleeping on him a little in this bout, especially given how mediocre Diniz has looked, other when he KO’d Austen Lane (after being dominated in the first round).

Diniz opened at +110 but closed at -110 before being stopped by Marcin Tybura. He was a +200 underdog when he opened against Karl Williams, those odds came down to +163 at close. The Williams fight was god awful, with Diniz earning a decision and Williams earning a ticket to PFL.