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SASKATOON, Saskatchewan — Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) provided an operational update today regarding its 2025 production plans. Development delays in transitioning the McArthur River mine to new mining areas are expected to defer the extraction of pounds planned in 2025 and therefore impact our 2025 production forecast. However, strong performance at the Cigar Lake mine provides an opportunity to partially offset the deferred McArthur River production. We believe our balanced and disciplined strategy and embedded risk management, which includes diversified production assets and access to multiple sources of supply, position us well to effectively mitigate the impact of these types of disruptions, meet our delivery commitments, and continue to deliver long-term value.
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At the beginning of 2025, we highlighted several potential risks to the McArthur River mine’s production schedule that could impact the timing of packaged production from the Key Lake mill and our consolidated production outlook for 2025. The risks included development delays and the expected timing of ground freezing as the mine transitioned into two new mining areas, as well as access to adequate skilled labour, and the timing of commissioning for new customized equipment. The impact of these risks was dependent on the magnitude of the delay, the McArthur River mine’s ability to substitute feed for the Key Lake mill with production from alternative mining areas, and our ability to offset reduced production from McArthur River/Key Lake with additional production from the Cigar Lake mine. We have determined that we are unable to fully mitigate the expected impact of the delayed development and slower than anticipated ground freezing in the first half of 2025.
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Production from the McArthur River/Key Lake operation is now anticipated to be between 14 million and 15 million pounds of uranium concentrate (U3O8) (100% basis; 9.8 million to 10.5 million pounds our share) in 2025, down from our previous forecast of 18 million pounds U3O8 (100% basis; 12.6 million pounds our share). At the Cigar Lake mine, we continue to expect to produce 18 million pounds U3O8 (100% basis; 9.8 million pounds our share) this year, however performance to date at Cigar Lake has been strong, creating an opportunity to potentially offset up to 1 million pounds (100% basis) of the shortfall at the McArthur River/Key Lake operation.
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Cameco’s strategy, which aligns our marketing, operational and financial decisions to capture full-cycle value, positions us to effectively manage the expected production shortfall and meet our delivery commitments to our customers. With favourable market prices for uranium today, we continue to have the option to buy in the spot market if it is advantageous for us to do so. However, we plan our supply sources several years prior to delivery to mitigate the impact of potential disruptions. Therefore, beyond production and spot market purchases, we have the flexibility to source material through various other means, including using our inventory, borrowing product, and pulling forward long-term purchases. Any uranium we do not produce this year will remain available to us and, with increasing upstream supply pressures, potentially become more valuable when delivered in the future. We have maintained exposure to higher prices under both the market-related contracts in our long-term portfolio and our pipeline of contract negotiations, which we expect will generate long-term value for Cameco. We have also maintained a strong balance sheet to help us self-manage risk.
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This unplanned event may lead to variability in the other outlook provided in our second quarter Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) for 2025; however, it is too soon to quantify the impact. We will provide an update when we better understand the implications of the deferred production.
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The McArthur River mine is owned 69.805% by Cameco and 30.195% by Orano. The Key Lake mill is owned 83.333% by Cameco and 16.667% by Orano.
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The Cigar Lake operation is owned 54.547% by Cameco, 40.453% by Orano Canada Inc. (Orano) and 5% by TEPCO Resources Inc.
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Qualified Persons
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The technical and scientific information discussed in this document for McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake was approved by the following individuals who are qualified persons for the purposes of NI 43-101: Greg Murdock, general manager, McArthur River, Cameco; Daley McIntyre, general manager, Key Lake, Cameco; Kirk Lamont, general manager, Cigar Lake, Cameco.
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Forward Looking Information
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This news release includes statements and information about expectations for the future, which are referred to as forward-looking information. This forward-looking information is based on current views, which can change significantly, and actual results and events may be significantly different from what is currently expected. Examples of forward-looking information in this news release include our expectation of changes to our 2025 production forecast as a result of delayed developments and slower than anticipated ground freezing at the McArthur River/Key Lake operation, and our expectation that we will be unable to fully mitigate the expected impacts thereof; our expectation that the development delays will defer planned extraction of uranium for 2025 at the McArthur River/Key Lake operation to a later date; the new expected production levels of the McArthur River/Key Lake operation for 2025; our expectation for the 2025 production levels of the Cigar Lake mine, and our view that its performance in 2025 may provide an opportunity to partially offset the shortfall at the McArthur River/Key Lake operation; our belief that our strategy positions us well to effectively mitigate the expected production shortfall, meet our delivery commitments, and continue to deliver long-term value,; our view that we have the option to buy uranium in the spot market if necessary to offset the production shortfall; our anticipated flexibility to source material through means other than production and spot market purchases; our expectation that any uranium not produced in 2025 will remain available to us in future years and potentially become more valuable when delivered in the future; our expectation that our maintained exposure to higher prices in our long-term contracts and ongoing contract negotiations will generate long-term value for us; our view that maintaining a strong balance sheet will help us self-manage risk; and our view that the production shortfall may affect the outlook regarding production and other matters provided in our second quarter MD&A for 2025, and our intention to provide a further update in the future.