In response to the government shutdown hitting the one-month mark, an unnamed adviser to Donald Trump said that the president has “had it with these people [i.e., congressional Democrats], because he knows they’re playing politics.” He’s right — but the administration hasn’t articulated the half of it.

Democrats have shut down the government due to their demands that Republicans extend enhanced Obamacare subsidies set to expire on Dec. 31. Such a demand would give a bailout to insurance companies totaling $350 billion plus interest. But it would also give a political bailout to Democrats themselves, who ended up in this situation only because they thoroughly mis-calculated when and how to seek a subsidy extension.

Flash Back to Summer 2022

This government shutdown effectively originated in July 2022, when Democrats passed their Inflation (Reduction) Act. After interminable negotiations behind closed doors with then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., threw out most of Democrats’ $5 trillion Build Back Bankrupt wish list. He suggested legislation that would 1) empower the federal government to “negotiate” drug prices in Medicare and 2) use some of the money from those price controls to extend the enhanced Obamacare subsidies, originally enacted by Democrats in March 2021 for a two-year period.

Put aside for the moment that this plan, and Democrats’ eventual legislation, raided Medicare to fund an expansion of Obamacare — just like Obamacare itself. Reports from the summer of 2022 noted that “the health care deal Manchin offered would reduce premiums for two years.” In other words, Manchin’s original proposal would have extended the enhanced subsidies, then set to expire at the end of 2022, for calendar years 2023 and 2024.

A Political Gamble That Backfired

Instead, the bill Democrats ended up passing extended the enhanced subsidies for three years, such that they expire at the end of this year, rather than doing so last December. Democrats’ reasons for so doing seem as obvious now as they did then — but events couldn’t have played out any worse for them.

I noted last summer that the enhanced Obamacare subsidies were set to expire at the same time as major portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Doubtless Democrats recognized this fact in 2022, and persuaded Manchin to go along with a three-year extension of the enhanced subsidies, such that the subsidies and TCJA would expire on the same timeline.

If Democrats had controlled any of the three elected branches of government this year, this gamble would have given them a sizable leverage point in discussion of a TCJA extension. They could have, and almost certainly would have, demanded a permanent extension of the enhanced subsidies in exchange for extending tax relief for the middle class. Indeed, with unified control of the elected branches, Democrats could have permanently extended the enhanced subsidies and let some or all tax relief for “the rich” expire.

One minor detail in all of this policy calculation: Democrats needed to win elections. They didn’t. Republicans control the three elected branches of government, and passed a permanent TCJA extension — without any Democratic votes, and without the enhanced subsidies attached — as part of this summer’s “big, beautiful bill.” The left’s leverage point went up in smoke, leaving the party scrambling for options.

Gross Miscalculation?

Ironically enough, when Manchin floated his initial deal in July 2022, the press noted that his proposal “would force the [Democratic] party to confront the prospect of rising premiums again in two years — just ahead of a presidential election.” In retrospect, Kamala Harris probably wishes she would have had the prospect of rising health care premiums as a tangible cudgel to use against Trump during her campaign last fall — “If you don’t vote for me, your costs will go through the roof.”

As a conservative who doesn’t want the enhanced subsidies extended, I’m glad that Democrats punted the issue beyond the presidential election. Having seen Republicans scared of their shadow on anything to do with health care far too many times, I could readily envision an alternative 2024 universe that became the worst of both worlds — a series of damaging headlines about rising premiums over the spring and summer to activate leftists, followed by a political cave where Republicans took ownership of Obamacare right before the presidential election, demoralizing the conservative base and depressing Republican turnout.

By punting the issue into 2025, Democrats hoped they would have a better chance of getting a permanent extension of the enhanced subsidies, rather than another one or two-year extension. They neglected to remember the fact that, for this strategy to succeed, they had to win an election first. (Oops.)

Schumer miscalculating politically is nothing new. This spring, he assumed Republicans could not pass a spending bill through the House of Representatives without relying upon Democratic votes — when they did, he felt obligated to retreat for lack of a better strategy. Now, however, his poor decisions three years ago have officially come a-cropper, and the American people have been made to suffer the ill effects of a government shutdown manufactured by Democrats because they 1) can’t think strategically and 2) can’t win elections.

One thing Republicans could do but they won’t because most of them are bought off.

The biggest issue you hear right now among average Americans is the affordability of everything including healthcare.

Instead of fighting over Obamacare subsidies, offer an alternative, make it easy to understand, take on the vested interests that keep healthcare super expensive.

The two biggest items of the ACA that have escalated insurance premiums out of control are: (1) the requirement for health insurance plans to cover pre-existing conditions, and (2) the elimination of lifetime caps on coverage.

One way to reduce premiums is to eliminate these ACA provisions as requirements for ALL plans, and allow insurers to offer plans with exceptions for pre-existing conditions and/or annual or lifetime caps on coverage.

The US taxpayers cannot afford to foot the bill for 50 million illegal aliens, their children, their elderly, their crippled, mentally ill and their maternity care period!
The unhinged commie/islamist party is demanding it.
That’s why everyone’s insurance is so high.
You’re covering your family and someone else’s family who aren’t even citizens.
It’s impossible for this to continue if the USA is to thrive.
Let the rich commie/islamist party members pay for their own illegal voting base out of their own pockets.

Personally If I came across a
Democrat physically on fire,
I would not even bother to pee
on them to put it out, much less
roll them around to smother
the flames.

Oh, just stop it! Stop talking logic and sensible solutions. Don’t you realize that we are now a “post-rational” culture??!?

This part of it.

At the same time they want repubs to cave to cover illegals on a whole bunch of benefits. If they do this the dems will say, hey, the repubkicans voted for covering them too.

Can’t do it.

Well I wouldn’t pass up a chance to pee on a socialist.

Obamacare must die. Repeal it.

Two things I would reform that would IMO make healthcare much less expensive would be to reform the legal liability system, so we don’t have lawyers making healthcare decisions.

Then I would allow cooperatives to form that allow individuals to purchase healthcare insurance at group prices comparable that corporations offer the employees.

I have recently joined Medicare and my supplement is from United Healthcare, in order to get the United Supplement, I had to join AARP for one year.

Instead of corporations offering healthcare coverage for their employees, allow them to contribute to Healthcare Savings Accounts that would allow the individual to pay for their own insurance, and the insurance would still be available if the employee was laid off, quit, otherwise became unemployed.

"Obamacare: Democrats Want Republicans To Bail Them Out Of Their Bad Political Gamble"

If you have ever pissed on a camp fire you know it smells really bad.

-PJ

Back in ‘08 the RINO GOP needed a sacrificial lamb, someone who would be content with winning the nomination, but someone who had no chance of winning the general election.
This was a repeat of 1996 with Bob Dole, who was already a two-time presidential primary loser. A great guy and dedicated patriot, but no chance of winning the general election.
The reason was simple politics; Bush 41 wanted W to run in 2000, and if a republican won in ‘96, then the Bush family would lose control of the GOP.
It worked just as planned, and W served two terms.
The next step was to make sure a democrat won in ‘08 so they could save 2016 for JEB!, and repeat the ‘96 charade, thereby ensuring RINO control of the GOP.
They knew that Obama would be a disaster, which was so much the better for the RINOs, who have a terrible record of getting their candidates over the finish line.
The worse that a democrat president is, like Clinton and Obama, the stronger the GOP turnout on election day.
All of these behind-the-scenes machinations were to secure and institutionalize their fatted calf, their cherished China trade policies.
This is the reason for all the sacrifices that America has made, and it has become obvious to all that this was a really, really bad idea, and they knew it. That’s why none of their plans were ever on ballots.
In fact, Rush talked about how the big GOP donors and corporate interests would not oppose a second Clinton term in ‘96 if Clinton gave them NAFTA and GATT, which he did, over the strenuous objections of democrat leaders in the House and Senate.
Their plan to get JEB! Installed was torched by the surprise campaign of Donald Trump, who nobody thought could win.
Don’t forget, the RINOs hate Trump so much that in 2018, 40 GOP members of the House resigned in order to throw the House to the democrats and Pelosi in order to stop President Trump.

What does this have to do with Obamacare?

We came within one vote in the Senate of getting rid of it, except the GOP sacrificial lamb of ‘08, in a fit of pique, and a last stab at the party that rejected him, gave a thumbs down, and preserved this communist monstrosity for the rest of us to suffer with.

GOP political scheming for the past 35 years has as much to do with this nonsense as the power hungry democrats.

IMHO

Obamacare was bad then & still is as far as I can see.

Not gross miscalculation intended democrat calculation.

The whole point is without opposition to worry, they an ram down their goodie bag of advancing towards state-run health care systems.

We are on Medicare and our premium and deductible go up every year. It is manageable but it makes our SS cost of living raise no real raise. But, we would rather go this route than use an advantage plan because of where we live. On Obamacare we had one choice of insurance carrier... Blue Cross Blue Shield. BCBS isn’t accepted at a lot of doctors and clinics in our area. Humana is being dropped at my chiropractor. So, we will stick with Medicare. At least it is widely accepted here!