• The Cincinnati Reds will be testing the free agent and trade markets when the MLB owners meetings open Sunday in Orlando, Fla.
• Slugger Kyle Schwarber, who has been linked to Reds, is among the most prominent players who could possibly find a team at the meetings.

Now that closer Emilio Pagan is back in the fold for the Cincinnati Reds, all eyes turn to Kyle Schwarber as the Reds and the rest of MLB head to Orlando, Florida this week for the winter meetings.

Team sources say the Reds’ long-rumored pursuit of the star slugger from Middletown remains serious heading into the industry’s annual convention – when many in the game believe the robust market for Schwarber should start to crystallize.

The favorite to land this year’s National League MVP runner-up still is considered to be his own Philadelphia Phillies, who have expressed strong interest in bringing him back even as reports suggest they’re slow-playing the process as his market becomes more defined.

The Mets, supposedly the Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox, and allegedly even the Pirates have been linked to Schwarber, too.

Phillies baseball operations president Dave Dombrowski said last month he hoped to bring back all three of his All-Star free agents, including left-hander Ranger Suarez and catcher J.T. Realmuto. But the typically big-spending Phillies seem to be approaching this winter less aggressively than recent offseasons. And more recent reports suggest the Phillies are more focused on the two hitters.

“It’s a process,” Dombrowski said.

Schwarber, 32, is expected to command a four- or five-year contract worth $25 million to $30 million per year.

Asked by The Enquirer a few weeks ago about the possibility of pursuing Schwarber effectively enough to land him, Reds president Nick Krall said:

“I’m not going to speculate on any free agent in general. But, look, he’s a really good player who obviously had a really good year, and … who knows?”

Since then, the team has continued a pursuit that in recent days still had team officials believing they remain in the running – however a long shot the industry considers them.

Nobody disputes how ideal a fit Schwarber is for the Reds on multiple levels, from his difference-making power for the lineup to his well-known impact as a teammate and the marketing potential as a popular and charismatic hometown player.

That last part might be as big a key to the Reds’ realistic ability to afford the sticker price if ownership chooses to loosen the purse strings enough to take advantage of what could be a uniquely shrewd investment for Cincinnati.

Krall said at the outset of the offseason that he was dealing with a payroll budget essentially frozen at or near the 2025 level, which might mean $10 million to $15 million in flexibility after Pagán’s new $10-million-a-year deal – before considering possible trades that might free up more flexibility.

The other way to look at the math is the additional money the Reds might make by signing Schwarber compared to any other potential addition.

The club is firmly in a competitive window, coming off a playoff season, with attendance having gone up 7.3% in 2026.

That number should only go up with another competitive season, especially if the team gets off to a stronger start than last year.

But it’s not hard to imagine an even bigger spike with a marquee star with local roots providing the competitive difference as an additional drawing card.

The last time the Reds made a move like that was 25 years ago when they traded for Moeller High's Ken Griffey Jr. – and saw a 25% jump in attendance the first year.

If you believe some of the price breakdowns that suggest the Reds’ median ticket price has been around $74 the last year or two, then even a 10% Schwar-bump – or 217,096 more tickets sold – is worth $16.1 million in additional revenue in just attendance.

Don’t believe the $74 number? OK, call it $50. That still would mean nearly $11 million more.

That doesn't count all the ancillary revenues attached to butts in the seats (concessions, parking, etc.) and potential ancillary revenues through merch and sponsorships.

It’s not like the Reds don’t have the financial strength to handle a Schwarber-level contract regardless. They’ve carried a contract on their payroll worth $20 million to $25 million in nine of the last 10 seasons (Joey Votto 2016-23, Nick Martinez in 2025).

Pagán is now the highest-paid player on the current roster (the Reds also are on the hook for $15 million for Jeimer Candelario’s final year and option buyout).

And their final payroll in 2025 was less than $120 million, with unspent revenue-sharing money from the league left to boost the player budget, according to someone with knowledge of those allocations.

Regardless of the Reds' ability and willingness to stretch their resources, there remains a mutual affection between the Phillies and Schwarber. And despite recent reports out of Philadelphia that those parties are "not close" to a deal, Dombrowski seems to be prioritizing one of his – and that city's – favorite players.

Schwarber is popular enough he was featured in a late-season episode of Philadelphia-set sitcom "Abbott Elementary."

Beyond what Schwarber does on the field – winning his second home run title with 56 this year – and how popular he is in the community, the Phillies view his intangibles in the clubhouse as an important part of his long-term fit in Philadelphia.

“Of course, it’s very important,” Dombrowski said. “It’s important with all of us. But he had a fantastic year. He means a lot to the organization. We’ve spoken in that regard. We’re just waiting to see what happens.”

If Schwarber gives the Phillies a shot to match or beat his best offer, it might not matter how serious the Reds get.

But if Schwarber gives the hometown team a serious look, it could be mean the kind of seismic winter that makes the Reds a serious threat next fall.